Case-Shiller Index Shows Cooling in West Coast Metros

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 4.6% year-over-year in February, down from a 5.1% gain in January and marking the fourth consecutive month of annual deceleration. Seasonally adjusted, the national index rose 0.3% from January, the smallest monthly gain since September 2023.

The 20-City Composite Index rose 4.4% annually, while the 10-City Composite advanced 5.2%. Behind the headline figures, West Coast metros showed the sharpest slowdown. San Francisco prices were up 1.1% year-over-year, the weakest of any city in the index. Seattle prices rose 2.3%, and Portland, Oregon, posted a 1.7% gain. All three readings represent their lowest annual growth rates since late 2023.

"The moderation on the West Coast is the most notable development in this release," said Brian Luke, head of commodities, real and digital assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. Luke pointed to elevated inventory, softening tech-sector hiring, and buyer resistance to price levels that remain near pandemic-era peaks as factors weighing on those markets.

The Midwest continued to lead price growth. Cleveland registered a 7.9% year-over-year increase, followed by Chicago at 7.4% and Detroit at 6.8%. Eastern markets also remained firm, with New York up 7.7% and Boston up 6.1%. Miami and Tampa, which had led the index for much of 2022 and 2023, posted gains of 4.5% and 3.2% respectively.

CoreLogic chief economist Selma Hepp said the regional divergence reflects differentiated supply conditions more than demand differences. Hepp noted that active listings in the San Francisco metro area are 38% above their March 2025 level, while inventory in Cleveland and Chicago remains below 2019 norms.

Year-over-year gains have now cooled for eight of the 20 cities tracked in the index compared with January readings. The Case-Shiller series, which uses repeat-sales methodology, lags the market by roughly two months. That means the February release captures contracts signed in December and early January when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.6%.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs project the Case-Shiller national index will grow 3.5% over the full year 2026, below the 5.3% rise recorded in 2025. The bank's housing economist Vinay Viswanathan said the forecast assumes modest Fed easing in the second half and a gradual improvement in listings. Zillow separately projects a 1.9% gain through March 2027, reflecting more cautious assumptions on rates.